Analyzing LinkedIn & GitHub for Insights
Many years ago, I realized LinkedIn offered a rich data set to find insights on startups.
Recently at HorizonVC, we’ve been analyzing GitHub data to do the same thing. I’m not yet sure if GitHub data can reveal as much as LinkedIn data, but it’s going to be fascinating to find out.
My favorite data point on LinkedIn is company-level headcount trend. It can generate a strong signal of a startup’s momentum:
For a bootstrapped company, a steady up-and-to-the-right headcount trend is a strong indicator of success
In contrast, for a VC-backed startup, an up-and-to-the-right headcount is not much of a signal - it’s simply a reflection of the capital infused into the business
For a startup that’s raised VC, a declining headcount trend has typically been a very negative signal
However, in today’s market where layoffs are becoming common at VC-backed startups, the signal of a declining headcount is weaker. Plenty of well-funded startups with layoffs today will end up being successful tomorrow.
Like LinkedIn, GitHub also offers a massive & unique data set, although it’s more narrowly focused on the world of open source software.
The most commonly viewed metric is an open source project’s number of “stars” (roughly analogous to a “like” on Facebook)
Stars are a superficial metric - it’s easy to game it - yet a surging “star count” is a powerful signal
Every open source repo on GitHub has many other data points that can potentially yield insights. With the help of some very talented developers, we’re actively building a toolset to explore this area.
We’re actively seeking input from open source founders & investors - so please reach out if you’d like to discuss or introduce us to open source experts in your network.