A Case Study in Determination: Joan of Arc
As a VC at the pre-seed and seed stage, I invest well before significant traction. It’s not easy to find investable signals. So, I think a lot about identifying the signals that are most predictive of success in founders.
YC founder Paul Graham has written persuasively that determination is the most critical factor in founder success:
We learned quickly that the most important predictor of success is determination. At first we thought it might be intelligence. Everyone likes to believe that's what makes startups succeed..But while it certainly helps to be smart, it's not the deciding factor. There are plenty of people as smart as Bill Gates who achieve nothing.
Based on my investing experience and on my experience as an amateur history enthusiast, I agree.
My favorite example from history: Joan of Arc.
I love underdogs. I think Joan of Arc was history’s greatest. How did she do it? Determination.
In the early 1400s, Joan of Arc led France to a string of key victories against England in the Hundred Years’ war. To appreciate the overwhelming odds that Joan of Arc overcame, it’s important to understand some context:
In 15th century Europe, women had no basically no rights (let alone roles in the military)
In 15th century Europe (and almost all of history), military leadership was assigned based on birth, so peasants had no opportunity to be military leaders
In 15th century Europe, teenagers were not typically given positions of authority
Joan had two massive strikes against her (woman, peasant) and one major one (teenager).
Yet over the course of less than a year in 1428 and 1429, she went from being an unknown peasant to becoming the leader of a triumphant French army!
Somehow, through sheer force of will, she was able to leave her family farm, climb the leadership chain and eventually get an audience with French leader Charles (soon to be King of France). Then, in the midst of a brutal war, she managed to convince him to let her take the reins of the military in battling England. She had little education and zero military training. Yet she still convinced him!
Her aggressive leadership led to a string of French victories, pushing the English back and enabling Charles' coronation as Charles VII.1
How was history’s greatest underdog able to pull it off?
She must have been intelligent and talented. But the deciding factor in her rise from obscurity was the force of her will. She was unrelenting in her focus to get in front of Charles. On the battlefield, she was spectacularly brave. Repeatedly charging at the enemy, leading from the front. Her determination was epic.
She started with nothing but an idea - basically, that God wanted her to take over the French army and help Charles receive a proper coronation. She marshaled resources and assembled a huge team and, given the circumstances, was a brilliant operator. Her rise was an unbelievably awesome act of entrepreneurship.
Back to startups, founders, and investing. I can’t help but wonder: where does such extreme determination come from? How does an investor identify the rare founder who has it?
These are hard question to answer. What I can say with confidence is that determination is much easier to measure in hindsight - which is why I’m so drawn to historical figures like Joan of Arc.